Scout.com > Boston Scout.com Roundtable: AL Rookie Of The Year Story URL: http://redsox.scout.com/2/590061.html Scout.com DiehardMagazine.com Nov 13, 2006 The best American League Rookie of the Year race in memory comes to a close today, when one of three outstanding pitchers—Francisco Liriano, Jonathan Papelbon and Justin Verlander—is expected to win the honor. In this Scout.com Roundtable, editors Jerry Beach, Denis Savage, Brad Weiss and Paul Wezner debate the merits of the candidates and pick who should win—and who will win. Jerry Beach, Diehard Magazine/Diehardmagazine.com Managing Editor Who should win: JONATHAN PAPELBON If closing in Boston isn’t different than closing everywhere else, then why are the Red Sox the only team in baseball aside from the eight-year-old Diamondbacks that’s never had a pitcher record consecutive 30-save seasons? But Papelbon assumed the role with such immediate and unrelenting dominance that he was considered not only the long-term solution to the Sox’ eternal problem but also a real candidate for the Cy Young and Most Valuable Player awards and the heir apparent to Mariano Rivera as the game’s best closer. Papelbon, whose ERA rose as high as 1.00 all season, finished the season with 35 saves, the third-highest total ever by a rookie, and an 0.92 ERA, the eighth-lowest ERA ever among pitchers who threw 50 or more innings and the third-lowest ever by a rookie. He also averaged 1.16 innings per outing, second-most among regular closers behind only Rivera. Yes, he stumbled a bit after the All-Star Break (he allowed more runs, four, in August than in the first four months combined), missed the final month of the season due to shoulder woes and is headed to the rotation next season in hopes of lengthening his career. But his ability to thrive in the most combustible job in baseball lifted him above the rest of a historically brilliant rookie field. Who will win: JUSTIN VERLANDER Papelbon and Francisco Liriano were more dominant this year and Jered Weaver, the impressive Angels hurler who did not spend the entire season in the majors and, unlike the three leading award contenders, did not miss time due to health issues, might be the best bet for long-term success. But the season is a marathon and Verlander’s ability to cross the finish line, coupled with his impressive performance, makes it likely Verlander will win the award today. While Verlander did labor in the second half (7-5 with a 4.34 ERA), he was outstanding in the first half (10-4, 3.01 ERA) and flirted with the league lead in wins and ERA before finishing tied for fourth with 17 victories (only the fifth time in the last 20 years a rookie has won 17 games) and tied for seventh with a 3.63 ERA. And he did it for a playoff-bound team. Only one other rookie 17-game winner since 1986 pitched for a playoff team (C.C. Sabathia with the Indians in 2001). That he threw so many more innings this year (186) than last year (130) is cause for concern going forward, but he’ll be a worthy winner today. Denis Savage, FutureHalos.com Senior Writer Who should win: FRANCISCO LIRIANO Tommy John surgery has rendered 2007 an afterthought for Liriano, but 2006 was still a successful season that deserves recognition. Although he did not throw as many innings as Jered Weaver or Justin Verlander, Liriano was downright nasty. In 121 innings he allowed just 89 hits and struck out 144. With a WHIP of 1.00, he rivaled teammate Johan Santana in terms of dominance. In 16 starts the young left-hander went 11-3—that is pretty good last time I checked. Who will win: JUSTIN VERLANDER With a plethora of candidates, it is unlikely that we will see our 16th unanimous selection for Rookie of the Year. Much like the Golden Globe, however, we may find our Oscar. Justin Verlander has already tucked the MLB Players Choice Award and is looking for the sweep. He will likely get it. It is tough to vote against a player who was instrumental in propelling his team to the World Series—even if the regular season is the only basis for the award. Seventeen wins and a fastball clocked at 101 sure have their benefits when the awards are being handed out. Brad Weiss, TwinCitiesDugout.com Senior Editor Who should win: FRANCISCO LIRIANO Francisco Liriano captivated the baseball world in 2006, showing the promise that made him USA Today’s minor league Player of the Year in 2005. Armed with a blazing fastball and devastating slider, Liriano baffled hitters all season long before an elbow injury cut his season short and eventually forced him to undergo surgery that will knock him out for all of 2007. After dominating in relief during the first month of the season, Liriano was placed in the Twins rotation on May 12 and ended up first amongst American League rookies in strikeouts (144), second in both earned run average (2.16), and wins (12) and fifth in innings pitched (121). He was also named to the American League All-Star Team after posting a 10-1 record in the first half. His dominance played a huge part in the Twins miracle turnaround. Who Will Win: JUSTIN VERLANDER This kid has all the tools to win a Cy Young one day, and he was one of the main reasons why the Detroit Tigers made it to the World Series. He has already picked up the Player’s Choice Award as the American League Outstanding Rookie, and is likely to win the AL Rookie of the Year as well. Verlander was able to stay healthy during the 2006 season and his 17 wins were fourth-best in the league. He did falter a bit down the stretch, but looked great in the post-season. This kid is only going to get better, and when your peers feel you are the best rookie in the American League, it is hard to vote against that kind of endorsement. Paul Wezner, TigsTown.com Senior Editor Who should win: JUSTIN VERLANDER Justin Verlander clearly has earned the American League Rookie of the Year, despite one of the best rookie classes in recent memory. While Francisco Liriano was absolutely dominant, he only started for half the season, and Jonathan Papelbon, while still finishing with an impressive stat line, faded hard as the season wore on. Verlander won 17 games, was 7th in the AL in ERA, and helped lead the Tigers to the American League pennant. Who will win: JUSTIN VERLANDER With that being said, there's no question that Verlander will walk away with the award today. That’s not to say either Papelbon or Liriano aren't deserving, but ultimately, it comes down to who did the most for their team all season long. Liriano found himself on the disabled list down the stretch, and Papelbon's Red Sox faded out of contention in August. Almost any other year, all three would be likely winners, but in the end, the award will be Verlander's. Copyright © Scout.com and DiehardMagazine.com