Will Rice Be Served Cooperstown Today?

Is today the day Jim Rice attains baseball immortality?

The results of the Baseball Writers Association of America’s annual Baseball Hall of Fame balloting will be released at 2 p.m. Rice and Goose Gossage are the top returning vote-getters, and with a lean slate of first-timers on the ballot, this year is viewed as their best chance at earning the 75 percent of the vote necessary to earn enshrinement in Cooperstown.

But today is a far more urgent day for Rice, the legendary former Red Sox left fielder, than Gossage, who, in his ninth year on the ballot, appears to be a lock to earn the necessary votes after he fell just shy of induction with 71.2 percent of the vote in 2007.

Of the 19 previous candidates to receive at least 70 percent of the vote, 14 were inducted in the next election. The only man who had to wait more than three years was Jim Bunning, who received 74.24 percent of the vote in his 12th year on the ballot in 1988 but fell under 70 percent in his final three years on the BBWAA ballot before he was inducted by the Veterans Committee in 1996.

The Veterans Committee may be Rice’s only hope if he falls short today. This is the next-to-last year on the BBWAA ballot for Rice, who is in his 14th year of eligibility, and next year’s list of newcomers features a sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer in Rickey Henderson. Last year, when Cal Ripken Jr. and Tony Gwynn were overwhelmingly inducted on their first try, Rice’s percentage of the vote dropped slightly to 63.5 percent (346 votes, 63 shy of the 409 needed). He received 64.8 percent of the vote (337 votes, 53 shy of the 390 needed) in 2006.

If a quick sampling of Internet writers and Boston-area scribes is any indication, Rice’s candidacy is gaining steam in a hurry. Fourteen of the 15 ESPN.com writers with a Hall of Fame vote cast a ballot this year for Rice, as did Foxsports.com’s Ken Rosenthal, CBSports.com’s Scott Miller and SI.com’s Jon Heyman. In Boston, the Globe’s Nick Cafardo and Dan Shaughnessy and the Herald’s Tony Massarotti have written about their support of Rice.

Rice’s chances could also be boosted by the PR campaign waged by ex-Sox spokesman Dick Brescani, who annually assembles voluminous data supporting Rice’s claim. Among his findings: Rice led the AL in 12 categories, including homers and RBI, from 1975-86. He finished in the top five of the AL MVP voting six times. And he is the only Hall of Fame-eligible player to hit at least .290 with at least 350 homers not enshrined in Cooperstown.

His candidacy may be most aided by the perception he put up his numbers during a clean, steroid-free era as well as the support of players who are already in the Hall of Fame. Over the last several years, new inductees have regularly mentioned Rice as a player who should be enshrined.

“There’s certain guys who hit fourth when you go to the All-Star Games,” Ripken said during his pre-induction press conference last July 28. “Jim Rice was that guy, in the middle of the lineup. He was a fourth hitter.”

Another possible positive sign: The Hall of Fame is prepared to hold three inductee teleconferences today.

Historically, though, the trends aren’t in Rice’s favor. Only two candidates have ever gained induction in their 14th year of eligibility—Rabbit Marinville and Bill Terry, both in 1954, back when a player remained on the ballot for 20 years. Since 1963—the first year a player’s eligibility was capped at 15 years on the ballot—the only man to gain enshrinement in his last or next-to-last year on the ballot was Ralph Kiner in 1975.

Rice needs to gain 11.5 percent of the vote, which likely means he needs at least 82 more votes than last year. (There were 545 ballots cast last year, 25 more in 2006, so assuming there are 25 new voters added to the electorate this year, Rice would need 428 votes for 75 percent).

But he’s experienced that type of surge in the balloting just once, when he went from 29.4 percent (146 of 373 votes) in 1999 to 51.5 percent (257 of 375 votes) in 2000.

Over the last 30 years, 12 candidates have surged past the magic 75 percent mark by gaining at least 11.5 percent of the vote. However, only three of those men made that push after their eighth year on the ballot: Tony Perez (in his ninth try in 2000), Don Drysdale (in his 10th try in 1984) and Duke Snider (in his 11th try in 1980).

Even if Rice falls short again, the Sox will be represented at the Induction Ceremony July 27. Dick Williams, the manager of the 1967 “Impossible Dream” team, was one of five candidates on the Veterans Committee ballot elected during a vote in December.