Classic Start, Quiet Finish To ROY Race

For five months, the race for baseball’s once-in-a-lifetime honor was appropriately extraordinary. Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Liriano and Justin Verlander emerged impressively and simultaneously and threatened to vie not only for the American League Rookie of the Year but also, potentially, the Cy Young and Most Valuable Player awards as well.

But as a once-in-a-lifetime honor, the Rookie of the Year award is also contingent on a player’s good fortune, much of which is random. And so a brilliant race wound down in atypically quiet and anticlimactic fashion in September, when Red Sox closer Papelbon (who did not pitch for the reeling Sox after suffering a right shoulder slippage Sept. 1) and Twins left-hander Liriano (who pitched twice after Aug. 1 due to a left elbow injury that eventually required Tommy John surgery) were sidelined and Tigers right-hander Verlander surged ahead as much by default as by performance.

Verlander is the heavy favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award this afternoon, when the results of the balloting by the Baseball Writers Association of America are released.

“I think Verlander’s got it,” Papelbon said prior to the Red Sox season finale Oct. 1. “If Verlander doesn’t win it, then I’d be very, very surprised. He’s [been a] great pitcher this year for the Detroit Tigers and I think me getting hurt is really going to affect those voting.”

Verlander did not dominate quite like Papelbon and Liriano, but he reached the finish line for a team that won 95 games and is the heavy favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award this afternoon, when the results of balloting by the Baseball Writers Association of America balloting are released.

Verlander, who is just two years removed from college, went 17-9 with a 3.63 ERA in 30 starts for the eventual AL champion Tigers and will certainly stack up well with pitchers who have previously won the award. Armed with a 100-mph fastball, a nasty breaking ball and an aptitude for the game, Verlander—the Game One starter in the World Series—is expected to ascend to the top of the Tigers rotation sooner than later.

“What he’s learning is he’s got to pitch,” Tigers catcher Vance Wilson said in August. “And if he pitches, he dominates. Justin’s a God-given athlete. He’s got a God-given arm. If he learns a good work ethic while he’s up here, he’ll have a long career. He dominates.”

But the results of an informal survey of players and writers—none of whom cast a ballot in the BBWAA voting—suggest Liriano (12-3 with a 2.16 ERA, 144 strikeouts in 121 innings and one save) and Papelbon (4-2, 0.92 ERA, 35 saves) would have relegated Verlander to a distant third in the race had they maintained their midseason pace. (See our Scout.com Roundtable for more)

“It would have been neat, it would have been awesome [if all three remained healthy down the stretch],” Papelbon said. “It would have been a fun, fun thing for it to come down that way. But obviously it didn’t.”

Even after missing most of the stretch run, Papelbon and Liriano are expected to finish ahead of the likes of Angels pitcher Jered Weaver (who won his first seven starts, the longest perfect stretch to begin a career since Fernando Valenzuela in 1981, on his way to finishing 11-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 19 starts), Orioles outfielder Nick Markakis (.291 with 16 homers and 62 RBI) and Mariners catcher Kenji Johjima (.291 with 18 homers and 76 RBI), all of whom would be serious candidates for the award most years but will have a hard time even making the three-man ballot issued to 28 voters (two in each AL city).

“I would have co-Rookies of the Year and my vote would be Liriano and Papelbon,” Orioles first baseman Kevin Millar said Sept. 30. “I think Liriano was as dominant a starting pitcher [as anyone in baseball]. I think Papelbon was as dominant as ever as a closer. Their numbers don’t lie. Verlander had a great season in wins, but with a 3.70 ERA.”

Papelbon, closing in a baseball-obsessed city and for a franchise that has been searching for a consistent closer as long as the save has been an official statistic, replaced Keith Foulke in the third game—and first save opportunity—of the season and put a stranglehold on the job by converting his first 20 save opportunities. He had 26 saves at the All-Star Break, 11 shy of the all-time single-season rookie record, and a 0.59 ERA, which was lower than the 0.61 ERA crafted by Dennis Eckersley during what is considered the greatest relief season of all-time in 1990.

Papelbon’s ERA hit 1.00 once all season—on Aug. 20—and he finished with a 0.92 ERA, the eighth-lowest mark overall and third-lowest mark since 1900 among pitchers who threw 50 or more innings. He posted a 0.78 WHIP, struck out more than a batter per inning, retired every batter he faced in a save situation 19 times and anchored an otherwise shaky bullpen: Papelbon averaged 1.16 innings per outing, second among closers behind only Mariano Rivera, and threw in a non-save situation 17 times in 59 games.

“What he did for us for four months was incredible,” Terry Francona said Oct. 1. “Especially that way he did it. We survived some early season—I don’t want to say inadequacies, but maybe being a little short sometimes because of him. We didn’t get exposed right away.”

“What he did over here, in Boston and really helping out that bullpen—stepping up and coming up big—was something special,” Twins closer Joe Nathan said in September.

Liriano opened the season in the bullpen, where he struck out 32 batters in 22 1/3 innings, before moving into the rotation in early May. He was the best pitcher in baseball over his next 14 starts, during which he went 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA and 105 strikeouts over 92 2/3 innings. Johan Santana, who will win his second AL Cy Young Award later this week, went 8-1 with a 3.21 ERA and 98 strikeouts in 101 innings over the same span.

Through Aug. 7, Liriano led the AL with a 2.19 ERA—a mark bettered over a full season by only two AL pitchers since 1990: Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez. The Twins were 17-24 before Liriano moved into the rotation and 79-42 afterward. But left elbow pain limited Liriano to just six innings after Aug. 1 and He didn’t pitch in the playoffs, when the Twins were swept in three games by the Athletics.

“If Liriano stays healthy,” Nathan said, “it’s not even a question [who wins the award].”

“Liriano wins if they both stay healthy because Liriano probably goes 22-1,” Millar said. “I mean, I don’t know if he gets beat. Liriano, in my opinion, wins if they both stay healthy because I think he was the most dominating pitcher in the big leagues.”

The anticlimactic conclusion to the Rookie of the Year race has given way to an uncertain future for all three candidates. Liriano underwent Tommy John surgery Nov. 6 and will miss all of 2007. Will he come back throwing harder than ever or is he the next Kerry Wood, destined to never reach his full potential?

Sports Illustrated writer Tom Verducci believes young pitchers are at risk of injury if they increase their workload by more than 30 innings per season. Verlander threw 56 more innings this season (186) than between the minors and majors last season.

And Papelbon, pegged by many as the successor to Mariano Rivera during his brilliant first half, will move into the rotation next season because the Sox believe starting will put less strain on his right arm. That means this year’s success translates into little long-term benefit for the Sox, who must find a closer this winter, and the famously confident and focused Papelbon, who faces the task of trying to establish himself as a dominant starting pitcher at an age (26) when most aces have already built a track record.

Is the aborted Rookie of the Year race a symbol of promise unfulfilled and disappointment to come for Verlander, Papelbon and Liriano? Or just an appetizer for a delectable and dominant next decade in which the three pitchers continue to vie for awards?

“Hopefully that’s something we can talk about later, when these guys do get healthy, and it’s something that still could happen,” Nathan said. “I don’t want to say what could have or would have happened.”


Diehard managing editor Jerry Beach can be reached at [e-mail]. To receive a free issue of Diehard, call 888-979-0979.